Will an asteroid hit the Moon in 2032? Here's what NASA says

In early 2025, scientists were concerned about the possibility of an asteroid colliding with our planet. Thankfully, they ruled out that catastrophic scenario quickly, but the threat was not deemed to be over. The object in question, Asteroid 2024 YR4, was initially discovered by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) on December 27, 2024. While Earth was deemed to be safe, scientists at NASA and ESA predicted a 4% to 4.3% probability that the near-Earth asteroid might hit the Moon on December 22, 2032. However, astronomers have recently provided a highly positive update regarding the space rock's trajectory.

NASA and ESA scientists estimated that the 200-foot-wide near-Earth asteroid would hit the Moon at nearly 9 miles per second. At such speeds, an asteroid of that size would have created a 500-foot-deep crater spanning 0.6 miles in the southern region of the Moon. Astronomers even predicted the exact timing of the theoretical collision: Asteroid 2024 YR4 could have impacted the Moon at approximately 10:19 AM EST on December 22, 2032, as per their calculations.

If the asteroid had crashed into an unlit portion of the Moon's Earth-facing side, people on Earth might have witnessed a fiery flash. Indeed, ESA astrophysicist Richard Moissl had stated, “It is a very rare event for an asteroid this large to impact the Moon—and it is rarer still that we know about it in advance. The impact would likely be visible from Earth, and so scientists will be very excited by the prospect of observing and analyzing it.”

Researchers estimate the flash could have potentially lasted for several minutes with a visual magnitude between -2.5 and -3, which is almost as bright as Venus appears in the night sky. This phenomenon could have been visible to the naked eye. Even after the bright flash faded, the impact site would have continued glowing in infrared light for several hours as the molten rock gradually cooled, though this infrared light would not have been visible to the naked eye.

According to researchers, the impact would have caused a 5.0-magnitude moonquake and released approximately 100,000 metric tons of debris into space. An August 2025 study published in The Astrophysical Journal Letters examined the consequences, pointing out that this dense layer of debris could heavily impact satellites orbiting near the Moon. Highlighting the severity of the threat at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union, NASA flight dynamics engineer Brent Barbee said, “This could pose a lot of risks to Earth-orbiting assets.”

The latest data from the James Webb Space Telescope’s Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam) has finally allowed astronomers to dismiss the 4% possibility of Asteroid 2024 YR4 slamming into the Moon. In March 2026, ESA announced that updated orbital calculations brought the chance of a collision officially down to zero; the asteroid will safely miss the Moon by over 12,000 miles (20,000 kilometers). While planetary defense experts are relieved, some scientists are mildly disappointed, as a collision would have provided an unprecedented, real-time opportunity to study how asteroids impact the Moon and how debris spreads in space.